A Deep Learning-Enhanced Compartmental Model and Its Application in Modeling Omicron in China

Abstract

The mainstream compartmental models require stochastic parameterization to estimate the transmission parameters between compartments, whose calculation depend upon detailed statistics on epidemiological characteristics, which are expensive, economically and resource-wise, to collect. In addition, infectious diseases spread in three dimensions: temporal, spatial, and mobile, i.e., they affect a population through not only the time progression of infection, but also the geographic distribution and physical mobility of the population. However, the parameterization process for the mainstream compartmental models does not effectively capture the spatial and mobile dimensions. As an alternative, deep learning techniques are utilized in estimating these stochastic parameters with greatly reduced dependency on data particularity and with a built-in temporal–spatial–mobile process that models the geographic distribution and physical mobility of the population. In particular, we apply DNN (Deep Neural Network) and LSTM (Long-Short Term Memory) techniques to estimate the transmission parameters in a customized compartmental model, then feed the estimated transmission parameters to the compartmental model to predict the development of the Omicron epidemic in China over the 28 days for the period between 4 June and 1 July 2022. The average levels of predication accuracy of the model are 98% and 92% for the number of infections and deaths, respectively. We establish that deep learning techniques provide an alternative to the prevalent compartmental modes and demonstrate the efficacy and potential of applying deep learning methodologies in predicting the dynamics of infectious diseases.

Keywords

• epidemics
• COVID-19
• Omicron
• compartmental model
• transmission parameter
• deep learning