Changes of tropical cyclone tracks in the western North Pacific over 1979−2016

Abstract

The tropical cyclone (TC) trajectory model has been widely used to investigate the mechanism of the climate change of TC tracks. In this study, the Gaussian weight interpolation method is used to calculate the beta drift in the TC track or trajectory model. By simulating historical TC tracks, the new calculation can better simulate the spatial distribution of the frequency of TC occurrence. The improved track model is further used to understand the TC track change during the period of 1979–2016. In 1979–2016, the TC activity has been suppressed in the South China Sea (SCS) while the TC influence along the southeast coastal regions of China has been increased. The sensitivity experiments indicate that the change of the formation location plays a dominant role in decreasing TC influence in the SCS while the change of the environmental steering flows increases the TC influence in the eastern coastal region of China. This study suggests that the ongoing climate change can affect the TC activity along the coast of China. Keywords: Tropical cyclone, Trajectory model, Beta drift, Formation position, Large-scale steering flows