Evaluating and Improving the Models' Prediction Skills for the Relationship Between the Summer NWPSH in Different Months

Abstract

Abstract Compared to interannual and interdecadal variations, inadequate attention has been given to intraseasonal changes in the summer northwest Pacific subtropical high (NWPSH). During 1981–2005, the north Indian Ocean (NIO) and NWPSH exhibit significant relationships from June to August, while the influences of the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation 1 (BSISO1) in June and August differ from its impacts in July, resulting in a significant correlation between the NWPSH in June and August. The models capture NIO's roles but underestimate BSISO1's influences, leading to an underestimation (overestimation) of the relationship between NWPSH in June and August (adjacent two months). A dynamical‐statistical approach based on the close relationship between June and August NWPSH is proposed to improve models' prediction capabilities. Improved results show the mean correlation coefficients (root mean square errors) between prediction and observation for August precipitation and geopotential height increase by 57% and 21% (decrease by 0.27 mm/day and 1.61 m).