Ecological Indicators (Jan 2021)
Integrated assessment of land-use/land-cover dynamics on carbon storage services in the Loess Plateau of China from 1995 to 2050
Abstract
Understanding the impacts of large-scale anthropogenic drivers on spatiotemporal processes in carbon storage through land-use patterns is a growing issue for the assessment of terrestrial ecosystems. However, an integrated assessment of changes in carbon storage, entailing complex land-use and land-cover (LULC) dynamics, remains a challenge. This study assessed the consequences of LULC changes on regional carbon storage in the Loess Plateau from 1995 to 2050 by integrating spatially explicit LULC and carbon models using multi-source data and typical scenarios. A Markov-CA model was used to model past LULC dynamics, which was followed by future projections under different LULC scenarios. Each scenario represented different socio-economic trajectories, including historical trend, ecological priority, and urban priority. The integrated valuation of the ecosystem service and tradeoffs (InVEST) carbon storage model and statistical methods were then used to assess spatiotemporal changes in the regional carbon storage associated with LULC dynamics. The results indicated that the ecological priority scenario could increase carbon storage by 11.36 Pg between 2015 and 2050. This is due to an increase in the carbon storage capacity in grasslands, shrub forest, and evergreen coniferous forest, indicating that ecological restoration could increase carbon sequestration. This mitigates the carbon loss caused by the rapid expansion of built-up land and fluctuations in cropland, which often takes place in the urban priority and historical trend scenarios. In favor of targeting the northwestern and central regions with socioeconomic benefits, grasslands and forests should be further promoted in the Loess Plateau. The findings will help implement long-term carbon sequestration strategies for ecosystem conservation.
