Investigation of P. vivax elimination via mass drug administration: A simulation study

Abstract

Plasmodium vivax is the most geographically widespread malaria parasite. P. vivax has the ability to remain dormant (as a hypnozoite) in the human liver and subsequently reactivate, which makes control efforts more difficult. Given the majority of P. vivax infections are due to hypnozoite reactivation, targeting the hypnozoite reservoir with a radical cure is crucial for achieving P. vivax elimination. Stochastic effects can strongly influence dynamics when disease prevalence is low or when the population size is small. Hence, it is important to account for this when modelling malaria elimination. We use a stochastic multiscale model of P. vivax transmission to study the impacts of multiple rounds of mass drug administration (MDA) with a radical cure, accounting for superinfection and hypnozoite dynamics. Our results indicate multiple rounds of MDA with a high-efficacy drug are needed to achieve a substantial probability of elimination. This work has the potential to help guide P. vivax elimination strategies by quantifying elimination probabilities for an MDA approach.

Keywords

• P. vivax elimination
• Stochastic model
• Hypnozoite
• Relapse
• Mass drug administration