A dataset of high-resolution climate change projections over South America with bias correction

Abstract

Accurate and detailed datasets are crucial for assessing climate change impacts. Regional climate models provide high-resolution simulations and are key tools but often exhibit systematic biases. Therefore, this paper presents a dataset derived from bias-corrected Eta regional model simulations and projections driven by four global CMIP5 models. The correction applied to daily precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, and 2-m air temperature, was conducted on a 0.2° x 0.2° grid over South America. The dataset covers two periods: 1976-2005 (baseline) and 2006-2099 (future) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Empirical quantile mapping was used to adjust the Eta model outputs to better match observational data. This method modified the accumulated probability curves of the Eta model outputs to align with observational curves for both baseline and future climates. Two observational datasets were used for correction and evaluation. The new dataset shows that bias correction significantly reduced the errors in the Eta simulations, especially for the frequent values of precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and 2-m temperature, and also corrected the annual cycle and frequency distribution of these variables, approaching the observations. The pattern of extreme precipitation indices from the bias-corrected Eta dataset also reduced error. Bias correction was applied to future projections. The comparison against the raw Eta dataset showed that the trends of changes were preserved, but in general, the peaks of the changes were smoothed. As in the raw Eta dataset, the RCP8.5 scenario showed a higher change rate than RCP4.5. This work also revealed the large uncertainty of the observational dataset; some of the remaining errors after the bias correction were mostly due to differences between the two correction and evaluation observational datasets. The described dataset is freely available from the CNPq LattesData repository at the following link: https://doi.org/10.57810/lattesdata/WAVGSL.

Keywords

• Regional climate model
• Eta model
• Empirical quantile mapping
• Cumulative distribution frequency