Use of Deep Learning Architectures for Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting over Different Time Periods in the Spanish Electricity Market

Abstract

The importance of electricity in people’s daily lives has made it an indispensable commodity in society. In electricity market, the price of electricity is the most important factor for each of those involved in it, therefore, the prediction of the electricity price has been an essential and very important task for all the agents involved in the purchase and sale of this good. The main problem within the electricity market is that prediction is an arduous and difficult task, due to the large number of factors involved, the non-linearity, non-seasonality and volatility of the price over time. Data Science methods have proven to be a great tool to capture these difficulties and to be able to give a reliable prediction using only price data, i.e., taking the problem from an univariate point of view in order to help market agents. In this work, we have made a comparison among known models in the literature, focusing on Deep Learning architectures by making an extensive tuning of parameters using data from the Spanish electricity market. Three different time periods have been used in order to carry out an extensive comparison among them. The results obtained have shown, on the one hand, that Deep Learning models are quite effective in predicting the price of electricity and, on the other hand, that the different time periods and their particular characteristics directly influence the final results of the models.

Keywords

• electricity price forecasting
• deep learning
• day-ahead market
• time series forecasting