Financial analysis of the intermodal terminal in Belgrade

Abstract

The development of logistics infrastructure in Serbia is the key to achieving regional competitiveness and economic prosperity of the state. Intermodal terminals have great significance in logistics networks and their development enables the implementation of intermodal transport technologies as well as participation in international goods flows. Belgrade, the national and regional economic centre and an important traffic node, attracts significant intermodal, container flows. For this reason, it represents a location for the development of an intermodal terminal that would play an important role in the logistics network of Serbia and the region as well. This paper analyses the financial justification of the development of an intermodal terminal in Belgrade, based upon four parameters - net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), benefit-cost ratio (B/C) and investment return period (RP). Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis of the observed parameters regarding the change of input parameter values (the volume of intermodal, container flows and the service price levels) is conducted. Two project funding scenarios are defined according to the involvement of the private sector in overall investments. The result analysis indicates that in both of the scenarios, the development of an intermodal terminal in Belgrade would be financially justified. The sensitivity analysis has shown that the financial justification of the development of the observed intermodal terminal is more sensitive to the change in container flow volumes in comparison with the change in terminal service price levels.

Keywords

• financial analysis
• sensitivity analysis
• logistics network
• intermodal transport
• intermodal terminal