Machine learning and interactive GUI for concrete compressive strength prediction

Abstract

Abstract Concrete compressive strength (CS) is a crucial performance parameter in concrete structure design. Reliable strength prediction reduces costs and time in design and prevents material waste from extensive mixture trials. Machine learning techniques solve structural engineering challenges such as CS prediction. This study used Machine Learning (ML) models to enhance the prediction of CS, analyzing 1030 experimental CS data ranging from 2.33 to 82.60 MPa from previous research databases. The ML models included both non-ensemble and ensemble types. The non-ensemble models were regression-based, evolutionary, neural network, and fuzzy-inference-system. Meanwhile, the ensemble models consisted of adaptive boosting, random forest, and gradient boosting. There were eight input parameters: cement, blast-furnace-slag, aggregates (coarse and fine), fly ash, water, superplasticizer, and curing days, with the CS as the output. Comprehensive performance evaluations include visual and quantitative methods and k-fold cross-validation to assess the study’s reliability and accuracy. A sensitivity analysis using Shapley-Additive-exPlanations (SHAP) was conducted to understand better how each input variable affects CS. The findings showed that the Categorical-Gradient-Boosting (CatBoost) model was the most accurate prediction during the testing stage. It had the highest determination-coefficient (R2) of 0.966 and the lowest Root-Mean-Square-Error (RMSE) of 3.06 MPa. The SHAP analysis showed that the age of the concrete was the most critical factor in the predictive accuracy. Finally, a Graphical User Interface (GUI) was offered for designers to predict concrete CS quickly and economically instead of costly computational or experimental tests.

Keywords

• Concrete
• Compressive strength
• Machine learning
• SHAP analysis
• k-fold cross-validation
• Ensemble model