The hidden role of buffalo trade network in bovine epidemic spreading.

Abstract

Animal movements are a key factor in the spread of pathogens. Consequently, network analysis of animal movements is a well-developed and well-studied field. The relationships between animals facilitate the diffusion of infectious agents and, in particular, shared environments and close interactions can facilitate cross-species transmission. Cattle are often the focus of these studies since they are among the most widely distributed and traded species globally. This remains true for Italy as well, but with an important additional consideration. Indeed, another important productive reality in the peninsula is buffalo farming. These farms have an interesting characteristic: approximately two-thirds of them also rear cattle. This coexistence between cattle and buffalo could have an impact on the diffusion of pathogens. Given that buffalo farms are often overlooked in the literature, the primary goal of this work is to investigate the potential consequences of omitting buffalo from cattle network analyses. To investigate this impact, we will focus on Q fever, a disease that can infect both species and is present on the Italian territory and for which the impact of the buffalo population has not been thoroughly studied, and simulate its spread to the farms of both species through compartmental models. Our analysis reveals that despite the significant difference in network sizes, the unique characteristic of Italian buffalo farms makes the buffalo network essential for a comprehensive understanding of bovine disease dynamics in Italy.