Regression prediction of critical exhaust volumetric flow rate in tunnel fire with two-point extraction ventilation based on neural network method

Abstract

In this study, a Genetic Algorithm-Backpropagation Neural Network (GA-BPNN) model was developed to predict critical exhaust volumetric flow rate in tunnel fires with two-point extraction ventilation system. Seven influencing factors served as inputs for the model, while the critical exhaust volumetric flow rate was the output. Experimental data from two reduced-scale tunnels were utilized to both train and validate the GA-BPNN model. The results demonstrate a satisfactory prediction performance, with key metrics such as Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Relation Coefficient (R2), and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) achieving values of 0.0384, 0.9989, and 3.5258, respectively. Importantly, the model maintains a maximum Absolute Percentage Error (APE) below 10 %. In contrast, the traditional BPNN model exhibited an APE of approximately 18.9 %. Moreover, the predictive results of the GA-BPNN model were compared with those of a previously semi-empirical formula. It was observed that the semi-empirical predictions exhibited APE exceeding 20 % for certain data points. This further underscores the superiority of the GA-BPNN model in predicting critical exhaust volumetric flow rates in tunnel fires with two-point ventilation system. These findings affirm the feasibility and effectiveness of GA-BPNN regression model as a reliable method for predicting critical exhaust volumetric flow rates under multiple factors.

Keywords

• Tunnel fire
• Two-point smoke extraction
• Critical complete exhaust volumetric flow rate
• GA-BP neural network