Is 28-day follow-up period enough for examining the mortality after resuscitation with human albumin?

Abstract

Objective The potential risk of mortality increase due to the use of human albumin (HA) in surgical patients has not been determined yet. The aim of the study was to evaluate the association of mortality rate of surgical patients with other indicators of the quality of health services and consumption of HA and hydroxyethyl starch (HES). Methods The study of a time series at the surgical department analyzed monthly indicators of the quality of health services. The monthly consumption of HA and HES is shown as a number of HA or HES bottles consumed in the intensive care unit (ICU) or outside the ICU. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used for the statistical analysis. Results For the total mortality rate, four significantly predictors in moving average model were identified. The total mortality rates for each next month were significantly directly dependent on the unobserved random error from the current and previous month. Number of operated patients showed an indirect effect on the total mortality rate. Number of HA bottles consumed in the ICU, mortality rate of operated patients and patients without operation were directly associated with the increased total mortality rate. Conclusions Follow-up period for examination of the mortality from resuscitation with HA in a heterogeneous surgical population can not be less than two months. ARIMA can be extremely useful in determining a total period of time when all mortality due to the application of certain drug in a particular population will be manifested.

Keywords

• human albumin
• mortality
• surgery
• time series study
• hydroxyethyl starch