Financial Sector of Russia: 30 Years of High Volatility Inside Global Finance

Abstract

The article provides a comparative analysis of the financial sector of Russia and other countries in the structure of the global economy; international comparisons are made over 30 years in terms of financial depth, including monetization, “saturation” with loans and securities, inflation, and interest rate. The inadequacy of the size of the financial sector to the size of the Russian economy is shown, the extremely high volatility of financial variables is analyzed (using the example of the exchange rate and changes in the institutional network (banks and non-bank financial institutions)). The model of the financial sector is revealed (excessive role of the state, overconcentration in the markets and among financial institutions, oligopolization, “monetary desertification” of regions, excessive administrative costs, focus on capital export). Shown is the “pro-crisis” nature of the financial sector in Russia (1– 2 crises in 10–15 years). The complete correspondence of the parameters of the financial sector of Russia to other developing economies is demonstrated (the fourth – seventh dozen countries in terms of financial depth). It is shown that the parameters of financial development, as a rule, are worse than the groups of countries with lower middle income (according to the international classification). The analysis of the Russian economic model made it possible to show the cause-and-effect relationships between it and the financial sector model, their interdependence. Four scenarios of the economic future (“besieged fortress”, “frozen economy”, “Spanish”, “growth economy”) are given, with estimates of their probability, and on this basis the corresponding scenarios for the future development of the Russian financial sector. The scenario of the “growth economy” based on the change in the model of the economy in Russia, the policy of “financial afterburner” and the formation of a new model of the financial sector in Russia is more fully disclosed.

Keywords

• central bank
• domestic credit
• economic model
• exchange rate
• financial development
• financial sector
• inflation
• interest rate
• politics
• scenarios of economic future
• volatility