Runoff trends analysis and future projections of hydrological patterns in small forested catchments

Abstract

The aims of the present study were (i) to evaluate trends in runoff from small forested catchments of the GEOMON (GEOchemical MONitoring) network during the period 1994-2011, and (ii) to estimate the impact of anticipated climate change projected by ALADIN-Climate/CZ regional climate model coupled to ARPEGE-Climate global circulation model and forced with IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario on flow patterns in the periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100. There were no general patterns found indicating either significant increases or decreases in runoff on either seasonal or annual levels across the investigated catchments within 1994-2011. Annual runoff is projected to decrease by 15% (2021-2050) and 35% (2071-2100) with a significant decrease in summer months and a slight increase in winter months as a result of expected climate change as simulated by the selected climate model.

Keywords

• climate change
• flow pattern
• headwater catchments
• hydrological modelling