Analyzing Spatial Trends of Precipitation Using Gridded Data in the Fez-Meknes Region, Morocco

Abstract

The aim of this paper was to present a precipitation trend analysis using gridded data at annual, seasonal and monthly time scales over the Fez-Meknes region (northern Morocco) for the period 1961–2019. Our results showed a general decreasing trend at an annual scale, especially over the mountain and the wetter parts of the region, which was statistically significant in 72% of the grid points, ranging down to −30 mm per decade. A general upward trend during autumn, but still non-significant in 95% of the grid points, was detected, while during winter, significant negative trends were observed in the southwest (−10 to −20 mm per decade) and northeast areas (more than −20 mm per decade) of the region. Spring rainfall significantly decreased in 86% of the grid points, with values of this trend ranging between 0 and −5 mm per decade in the upper Moulouya and −5 to −10 mm per decade over the rest of the region (except the northwest). At a monthly time scale, significant negative trends were recorded during December, February, March and April, primarily over the northeast Middle Atlas and the northwest tip of the region, while a significant upward trend was observed during the month of August, especially in the Middle Atlas. These results could help decision makers understand rainfall variability within the region and work out proper plans while taking into account the effects of climate change.

Keywords

• rainfall trend
• gridded data
• Mann–Kendall test
• Fez-Meknes region
• Morocco