Pancreas Transplantation Outcome Predictions—PTOP: A Risk Prediction Tool for Pancreas and Pancreas-Kidney Transplants Based on a European Cohort

Abstract

Background. For patients with complicated type 1 diabetes having, for example, hypoglycemia unawareness and end-stage renal disease because of diabetic nephropathy, combined pancreas and kidney transplantation (PKT) is the therapy of choice. However, the shortage of available grafts and complex impact of risk factors call for individualized, impartial predictions of PKT and pancreas transplantation (PT) outcomes to support physicians in graft acceptance decisions. Methods. Based on a large European cohort with 3060 PKT and PT performed between 2006 and 2021, the 3 primary patient outcomes time to patient mortality, pancreas graft loss, and kidney graft loss were visualized using Kaplan-Meier survival curves. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were developed for 5- and 10-y prediction of outcomes based on 26 risk factors. Results. Risk factors associated with increased mortality included previous kidney transplants, rescue allocations, longer waiting times, and simultaneous transplants of other organs. Increased pancreas graft loss was positively associated with higher recipient body mass index and donor age and negatively associated with simultaneous transplants of kidneys and other organs. Donor age was also associated with increased kidney graft losses. The multivariable Cox models reported median C-index values were 63% for patient mortality, 62% for pancreas loss, and 55% for kidney loss. Conclusions. This study provides an online risk tool at https://riskcalc.org/ptop for individual 5- and 10-y post-PKT and PT patient outcomes based on parameters available at the time of graft offer to support critical organ acceptance decisions and encourage external validation in independent populations.