Glacial lake outburst flood hazard assessment by satellite Earth observation in the Himalayas (Chomolhari area, Bhutan)

Abstract

A case study of glacial lakes outburst flood (GLOF) hazard assessment by satellite Earth observation (EO) and numerical modelling is presented for the supraglacial and ice-contact lakes on Thangothang Chhu glacier, Chomolhari area (Bhutan). Detailed geomorphological mapping, including landslide and rock glacier inventories, as well as surface displacement determination using an interferometric SAR (InSAR) satellite, allowed a GLOF hazard assessment for lake Wa-007 to be performed. Outburst scenario modelling was achieved by combining both empirical and numerical modelling approaches, revealing that only a flood wave can have an impact on the two human settlements located downslope of Wa-007 lake. The worst-case scenario, modelled thanks to r.damflood, allowed the wave-front arrival time, the maximum water depth and the arrival time of maximum water height for the two human settlements to be quantified. A long-term monitoring strategy based entirely on EO data, with an update cycle of 5 years, is proposed to assess the future evolution of the area.