Clinical Epidemiology (Dec 2017)
Performance of the LACE index to predict 30-day hospital readmissions in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
Abstract
Maryam A Hakim,1,2 Frances L Garden,2,3 Matthew D Jennings,4 Claudia C Dobler1,2,3,5 1Department of Respiratory Medicine, Liverpool Hospital, 2South Western Sydney Clinical School, University of New South Wales, 3Ingham Institute for Applied Medical Research, 4Department of Physiotherapy, Liverpool Hospital, Sydney, NSW, Australia; 5Evidence-Based Practice Center, Robert D. and Patricia E. Kern Center for the Science of Health Care Delivery, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA Background and objective: Patients hospitalized for acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) have a high 30-day hospital readmission rate, which has a large impact on the health care system and patients’ quality of life. The use of a prediction model to quantify a patient’s risk of readmission may assist in directing interventions to patients who will benefit most. The objective of this study was to calculate the rate of 30-day readmissions and evaluate the accuracy of the LACE index (length of stay, acuity of admission, co-morbidities, and emergency department visits within the last 6 months) for 30-day readmissions in a general hospital population of COPD patients.Methods: All patients admitted with a principal diagnosis of COPD to Liverpool Hospital, a tertiary hospital in Sydney, Australia, between 2006 and 2016 were included in the study. A LACE index score was calculated for each patient and assessed using receiver operator characteristic curves.Results: During the study period, 2,662 patients had 5,979 hospitalizations for COPD. Four percent of patients died in hospital and 25% were readmitted within 30 days; 56% of all 30-day readmissions were again due to COPD. The most common reasons for readmission, following COPD, were heart failure, pneumonia, and chest pain. The LACE index had moderate discriminative ability to predict 30-day readmission (C-statistic =0.63).Conclusion: The 30-day hospital readmission rate was 25% following hospitalization for COPD in an Australian tertiary hospital and as such comparable to international published rates. The LACE index only had moderate discriminative ability to predict 30-day readmission in patients hospitalized for COPD. Keywords: predictor model, risk prediction, unwarranted variation
