Impact of climate change on rice yield under projected scenarios in central zone of Kerala

Abstract

The future climate for central zone of Kerala was estimated with climate change projections generated using ECHAM model and GFDL-CM3 model for 2030, 2050 and 2080 based on RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The information gathered was used in the DSSAT-CERES Rice Crop Simulation Model to evaluate the influence of climate change on the rice variety Jyothi in 2030, 2050, and 2080. Results showed that among different dates of planting, the performance of rice variety Jyothi is better on October 1st planting under projected climate. In RCP 4.5, which is the most possible scenario of India, decrease in yield will be 13.8, 16.9 and 24.5 per cent respectively during 2030, 2050 and 2080. Whereas, under RCP 8.5 scenario, yield reduction observed was 15.3, 27.4 and 39.7 per cent respectively during 2030, 2050 and 2080. The yield reduction in almost all the planting dates in RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios may due to increased minimum and maximum temperature and increased rainfall during anthesis. According to the study, increased temperature has a considerable detrimental influence on rice yield. Increased rainfall during the anthesis stage, on the other hand, has a negative impact on crop performance.

Keywords

• Climate change
• Rice
• CERES -Rice
• Climate projection
• Representative concentration pathway (RCP)