Multi-Step Passenger Flow Prediction for Urban Metro System Based on Spatial-Temporal Graph Neural Network

Abstract

Efficient operation of urban metro systems depends on accurate passenger flow predictions, a task complicated by intricate spatiotemporal correlations. This paper introduces a novel spatiotemporal graph neural network (STGNN) designed explicitly for predicting multistep passenger flow within metro stations. In the spatial dimension, previous research primarily focuses on local spatial dependencies, struggling to capture implicit global information. We propose a spatial modeling module that leverages a dynamic global attention network (DGAN) to capture dynamic global information from all-pair interactions, intricately fusing prior knowledge from the input graph with a graph convolutional network. In the temporal dimension, we design a temporal modeling module tailored to navigate the challenges of both long-term and recent-term temporal passenger flow patterns. This module consists of series decomposition blocks and locality-aware sparse attention (LSA) blocks to incorporate multiple local contexts and reduce computational complexities in long sequence modeling. Experiments conducted on both simulated and real-world datasets validate the exceptional predictive performance of our proposed model.

Keywords

• metro system
• multistep passenger flow prediction
• dynamic global attention
• locality-aware sparse attention
• graph convolutional network