Établissement d’un modèle de prédiction de la Bluetongue basé sur les données météorologiques et de télédétection, cas de la région Fès-Meknès

Abstract

Bluetongue (BT) is an infectious, arthropod borne viral disease of domestic and wild ruminants. BT is a notifiable disease of huge socio-economic concern and of major importance in the international trade of animals and animal products. However, no study has yet been carried out to propose a tool to anticipate the occurrence of the disease. The objective of this study is to perform a mathematical model for predicting suitable areas for the appearance of bluetongue disease. This model will allow the monitoring and management of this animal disease. The creation of this model is based on epidemiological data collected in the field. These are combined with two other types of data: Remote Sensing (vegetation index, altitude) and climate (temperature, rainfall). The model performed is based on logistic regression. The assumption about its validity was examined by testing many combinations based on modeling and validation on data of 2006 and 2009 in Fès-Meknès region. The validation rates obtained are between 73% and 80%. This approach requires, in order to be effectively used as an early warning and risk management tool by animal health decision-makers, an efficient and real-time collection of epidemiological field data.