Regulatory Processes in Populations of Forest Insects (A Case Study of Insect Species Damaging the Pine <i>Pinus sylvestris</i> L. in Forests of SIBERIA)

Abstract

The present study addresses the population dynamics of five species of phyllophagous forest insects in five habitats located in the Krasnoturansk pine forest (south Middle Siberia). Based on the data of insect surveys obtained during 1979–2016, autoregressive (AR) models of population dynamics have been proposed, with the current population density being dependent on population densities of the preceding years. Methods of calculation of the autoregression order and coefficients of AR equations have been presented. The study shows that, for different insect species in different habitats, the lags between the current population density and the densities of the previous years are not the same. AR equations characterize positive and negative feedbacks regulating population dynamics. By using AR equations, up to 90% of population density variance can be taken into account. Stability margin, which is calculated from coefficients of AR models, has been proposed as a parameter to assess the stability of population dynamics. A small stability margin indicates a high risk of outbreak of an insect species.

Keywords

• insect
• population dynamics
• outbreaks
• autoregulation
• positive and negative feedbacks
• modeling