Multi-season transmission model of Eastern Equine Encephalitis.

Abstract

Eastern Equine Encephalitis (EEE) is an arbovirus that, while it has been known to exist since the 1930's, recently had a spike in cases. This increased prevalence is particularly concerning due to the severity of the disease with 1 in 3 symptomatic patients dying. The cause of this peak is currently unknown but could be due to changes in climate, the virus itself, or host behavior. In this paper we propose a novel multi-season deterministic model of EEE spread and its stochastic counterpart. Models were parameterized using a dataset from the Florida Department of Health with sixteen years of sentinel chicken seroconversion rates. The different roles of the enzootic and bridge mosquito vectors were explored. As expected, enzootic mosquitoes like Culiseta melanura were more important for EEE persistence, while bridge vectors were implicated in the disease burden in humans. These models were used to explore hypothetical viral mutations and host behavior changes, including increased infectivity, vertical transmission, and host feeding preferences. Results showed that changes in the enzootic vector transmission increased cases among birds more drastically than equivalent changes in the bridge vector. Additionally, a 5% difference in the bridge vector's bird feeding preference can increase cumulative dead-end host infections more than 20-fold. Taken together, this suggests changes in many parts of the transmission cycle can augment cases in birds, but the bridge vectors feeding preference acts as a valve limiting the enzootic circulation from its impact on dead-end hosts, such as humans. Our what-if scenario analysis reveals and measures possible threats regarding EEE and relevant environmental changes and hypothetically suggests how to prevent potential damage to public health and the equine economy.