Adapting to Climate Change: Reducing Nonpoint Source Pollution in Agriculture: A Case Study in Gyeseong Stream, Korea

Abstract

Climate change scenarios have been used to evaluate future climate change impacts and develop adaptation measures to mitigate potential damage. This study investigated strategies to reduce nonpoint source loads in an agriculturally dominated watershed and adapt to climate change despite uncertainty. We also investigated strategies for adapting to future meteorological conditions characterized by uncertainty. We utilized the latest future climate change scenarios—shared socioeconomic pathways—and explored measures to reduce nonpoint source loads by implementing nonpoint pollution abatement facilities in a watershed model. The simulation results indicate that the future frequency of rainfall events may decrease based on observations and the types and features of rainfall events in the scenarios. However, the variability of runoff loads in the context of future climate scenarios may increase because of factors influencing surface runoff, including the amount and intensity of rainfall. Nonpoint source loads are expected to exhibit high uncertainty in the future. Finally, the optimal solution can be determined through a simulated evaluation of the cost–benefit of installing the abatement facilities, considering the abatement efficiency and maintenance period. Overall, implementing effective management practices is crucial for reducing nonpoint source loads resulting from agricultural activities while adapting to increasingly variable meteorological conditions.

Keywords

• climate change
• shared socioeconomic pathway
• nonpoint source
• hydrological simulation program—FORTRAN
• agriculture