Unravelling the dynamics of human development and economic growth on crude oil production based on ARDL and NARDL models

Abstract

This paper estimates and establishes the causality between the Human Development Index (HDI), Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation and CO2 emissions on crude oil production (COP) in Cameroon from 1977 to 2019. To do so, the Augmented Dicky-Fuller and Zivot-Andrews stationarity tests, ARDL and NARDL modelling, as well as Toda-Yamamoto causality test are performed. Unlike previous studies on COP, this study incorporates the asymmetric impact (NARDL). The results indicate that CO2 emissions and GDP have a negative impact on COP in the long-run, while HDI and inflation have a positive impact in the short-run. GDP and HDI have a non-linear impact in the short run, while in the long-run inflation and CO2 emissions have a non-linear impact on COP. From these results, it is interesting to note that, in order to allow future generations to benefit from the oil windfall. The diversification of the Cameroonian economy, the control of inflation and the use of less polluting crude oil extraction technologies must be imperative. • A step-by-step procedure of the ARDL, NARDL and causality test is provided. • The multiplier effects of GDP, HDI, inflation and CO2 emissions on COP are simulated. • The impact of GDP and HDI on COP is non-linear

Keywords

• Dynamics of ARDL, NARDL and the multiplier effect