Performance analysis method for model-based irrigation strategies under uncertainty

Abstract

There is a necessity to increase the performance of food production in agriculture, this means, that precise management support in farming systems is required to reduce water use and drainage while avoiding crop stress. Management support based on model predictions is used to increase the performance of food production. However, sources of uncertainty affect the model predictions. Uncertainty in soil properties and uncertain evapotranspiration translate into uncertain predictions, and consequently in risk of performance loss. This paper presents the code and method to analyze performance uncertainty (and risk of performance loss) due to uncertain circumstances. The method is based on using the De Graaf evapotranspiration model and the EMMAN3G model, a Richards equation-based soil water model, as modules to conduct a performance uncertainty study.

Keywords

• Monte Carlo
• Drainage
• Richards equation