Analysis of the Relationship between Surface Soil Moisture and Precipitation over the Loess Plateau

Abstract

Observed soil moisture and precipitation as well as GLDAS and CMFD reanalysis data are used to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution and variation trend in the Loess Plateau region.Regression analysis， Granger causality test and singular value decomposition （SVD） are used to study the relationship between soil moisture and precipitation， and to analyze the temporal scale and spatial range of the influence of initial soil moisture on subsequent precipitation.The results show that the explained variance of the regression analysis of soil moisture and subsequent 1~2 months precipitation on the Loess Plateau is relatively high， with larger values in the summer and fall seasons （July， August， September， and October）.That the correlation between soil moisture and the subsequent 21 days of precipitation in different regions of the Loess Plateau （zones I， II， and III） is more frequent and concentrated than that in the whole region.This indicates that soil moisture on the Loess Plateau is heterogeneous so that a larger lagged precipitation time scale is just suitable for analysis at larger spatial scales.The Granger causality test shows that the initial soil moisture in the fall （October and November） across the Loess Plateau has a significant effect on the precipitation in the following 1 or 2 months， and the soil moisture in August also has a significant effect on the precipitation in October in Area III， which is consistent with the results of the regression analysis.The result of the SVD decomposition shows that from 1979 to 2014， when soils in the central， northern， and eastern parts of the Loess Plateau are wetter in July， the precipitation in the western and northern margins of the plateau is accordingly more in August.A wetter soil in the eastern part of the plateau in September means more precipitation in the western part of the plateau， as well as some parts of the northern and southern parts of the plateau， in October.The significant correlation between soil moisture and precipitation has fewer overlapping regions， suggesting spatial and temporal asymmetry in the influence of soil moisture on precipitation on the Loess Plateau.

Keywords

• the loess plateau
• surface soil moisture
• precipitation
• correlation analysis
• singular value decomposition （svd）