Research on the Graphical Model Structure Characteristic of Strong Exogeneity Based on Twin Network Method and Its Application in Causal Inference

Abstract

Strong exogeneity is an important assumption in the study of causal inference, but it is difficult to identify according to its definition. The twin network method provides a graphical model tool for analyzing the variable relationship, involving the actual world and the hypothetical world, which facilitates the investigating of strong exogeneity. In this paper, the graphical model structure characteristic of strong exogeneity is investigated based on the twin network method. Compared with other derivation methods of graphical diagnosis, the method based on the twin network is more concise, clearer, and easier to understand. Under the condition of strong exogeneity, it is easy to estimate the probability of causation based on observational data. As an example, the application of graphical model structure characteristic of strong exogeneity in causal inference in the context of lung cancer simple sets (LUCAS) is illustrated.

Keywords

• causal effect
• exogeneity
• graphical model
• observational data
• probability of causation
• twin network