Exploring C-peptide loss in type 1 diabetes using growth curve analysis.

Abstract

ObjectivesC-peptide (CP) loss in type 1 diabetes (T1D) is highly variable, and factors influencing it are poorly understood. We modelled CP values in T1D patients from diagnosis for up to 6 years, treating the serial data as growth curves plotted against time since diagnosis. The aims were to summarise the pattern of CP loss (i.e. growth curve shape) in individual patients in simple terms, and to identify baseline characteristics that predict this pattern in individuals.Materials and methodsBetween 1976 and 2011, 442 T1D patients initially aged ResultsThe square root (√) AUC scale provided the best fit. The mean levels and rates of fall for individuals were normally distributed and uncorrelated with each other. Age at diagnosis and √AUC at 3 months strongly predicted the patient-specific mean levels, while younger age at diagnosis (pConclusionsSITAR growth curve analysis is a useful tool to assess CP loss in type 1 diabetes, explaining patient differences in terms of their mean level and rate of fall. A definition of rapid CP loss could be based on a quantile of the rate of fall distribution, allowing better understanding of factors determining CP loss and stratification of patients into targeted therapies.