Maximum chest CT score is associated with progression to severe illness in patients with COVID-19: a retrospective study from Wuhan, China

Abstract

Abstract Background The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is a world-wide health crisis. Limited information is available regarding which patients will experience more severe disease symptoms. We evaluated hospitalized patients who were initially diagnosed with moderate COVID-19 for clinical parameters and radiological feature that showed an association with progression to severe/critical symptoms. Methods This study, a retrospective single-center study at the Central Hospital of Wuhan, enrolled 243 patients with confirmed COVID­19 pneumonia. Forty of these patients progressed from moderate to severe/critical symptoms during follow up. Demographic, clinical, laboratory, and radiological data were extracted from electronic medical records and compared between moderate- and severe/critical-type symptoms. Univariable and multivariable logistic regressions were used to identify the risk factors associated with symptom progression. Results Patients with severe/critical symptoms were older (p 11) had the greatest predictive value for disease progression. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.861 (95% confidence interval: 0.811–0.902). Conclusions Maximum CT score and COPD were associated with patient deterioration. Maximum CT score (> 11) was associated with severe illness.

Keywords

• Chest CT
• COVID-19
• COPD
• ROC
• CT score
• Multivariate regression