Ülke Kredi Notlarının Portföy Yatırımları ve Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye ÖrneğiThe Effect of Sovereign Credit Ratings on Portfolio Investments and Foreign Direct Investments: The Case of Turkey)

Abstract

Credit ratings given to countries by credit rating agencies have the potential to direct international capital flows by influencing investors' investment decisions. In this study the credit ratings given for Turkey by three major international credit rating agencies Standard & Poor's, Moody's and Fitch impact on foreign direct investment and portfolio investments was investigated with Johansen cointegration method and ARDL (Autoregressvive Distributed Lag) method that is based on limit test approach for 1998: Q1-2019: Q3 period. As a result of the analysis, no significant relationship was determined between credit ratings and foreign direct investments while the effect of credit ratings on portfolio investments was found significant and positive. Although credit ratings positively affect portfolio investments, the impact degree is quite weak. The resulting analysis findings indicate that credit ratings given to Turkey are not a sufficient and effective enough factor in directing capital flows.

Keywords

• sovereign credit ratings
• credit rating agencies
• portfolio investments
• foreign direct investments
• international capital flows