Spatial Modeling for Homicide Rates Estimation in Pernambuco State-Brazil

Abstract

Homicide rates have been increasing worldwide, especially in Latin America, where it is considered one of the most lethal of the continents. Despite that, the occurrence of homicides are not homogeneous in time and space on the continent or in the Brazilian cities. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to present a spatial analysis of homicides in the state of Pernambuco, Brazil, between the years of 2016 and 2019, by the use of an exploratory analysis of spatial homicide data with five variables that could explain its occurrence. In addition to that, it was applied the Global and Local Moran’s Index, Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression, and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR), all implemented in the Geographic Information System (GIS) software. Thus, the distribution of clusters revealed a spatial autocorrelation for homicide rates, confirming a spatial dependence. This data also showed the polarization of the rate between the coast and the interior of the state of Pernambuco.

Keywords

• spatial analysis
• homicide
• mapping
• homicide rates
• GWR
• GIS