A Corruption Impunity Model Considering Anticorruption Policies

Abstract

Corruption is a global problem that affects the fair distribution of wealth of every country to different degrees and represents a problem to be solved to prevent the diversion and waste of resources. Among the different efforts to first measure it and later reduce it by proposing strategies, there exist a variety of indices, such as the corruption perception index, and other related issues, such as the global impunity index, the laxness of anticorruption policies, etc., which are computed for different countries worldwide. Based on these indices, we propose a model for corruption using a system of ordinary differential equations, considering anticorruption policies. Those three factors were identified after analyzing the phenomenon and available data, particularly for Mexico. Also, we fit it to the reported data of this country and perform simulations expecting to predict the short term, and performed a sensitivity analysis. The model is capable of reproducing the observed oscillatory behavior of the phenomenon. The model fit can still be improved by including the data for the anticorruption policies, which were only studied for different scenarios. Moreover, the model is susceptible to application in other countries, as long as data are available, and then provides a computational tool to predict and visualize the effect of appropriate public policies to fight corruption.

Keywords

• model
• differential equations
• corruption perception index
• impunity index