Projecting Bioclimatic Change over the South-Eastern European Agricultural and Natural Areas via Ultrahigh-Resolution Analysis of the de Martonne Index

Abstract

The changing climate is closely related to changes in the bioclimate. This research deals with the present bioclimate and its projected evolution over the entirety of the natural and agricultural lands of south-eastern Europe and individual countries (Bulgaria, Greece, Kosovo, N. Macedonia, Romania, and Serbia). For this purpose, an ultrahigh spatial resolution of the de Martonne bioclimatic index pattern was elaborated and analysed for the first time. The survey is performed over the reference period (1981–2010) and future time frames (2011–2040; 2041–2070; 2071–2100) under SSP370 and SSP585 emission scenarios. On a territorial level, both natural and agricultural areas appear as highly impacted by the future changes of bioclimate; the highest xerothermic trend is expected to influence the latter areas, mostly in 2071–2100 and under the higher emission scenario. The natural areas will face an expansion in the semidry class from 0.9% (of the total area) during the reference period to 5.6% during 2071–2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario as the dominant extremely humid class falls from 53.5% to 32.9% for the same periods and scenario. On the other hand, agricultural areas will face a more intense xerothermic alteration going from 4.9% to 17.7% for the semidry class and from 41.1% to 23.5% for the dominant very humid class for the same periods and scenario. This study presents the spatial statistics per country for the selected scenarios and periods to provide information for stakeholders. This study’s results highlight the necessity for intensifying adaptation plans and actions aiming at the feasibility of agricultural practices and the conservation of natural areas.

Keywords

• climate change
• bioclimate change
• bioclimate classification
• de Martonne index
• Bulgaria
• Greece