Evaluation of models to predict prognosis in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma treated with TACE combined with apatinib

Abstract

Abstract Background The HAP, Six-and-Twelve, Up to Seven, and ALBI scores have been substantiated as reliable prognostic markers in patients presenting with intermediate and advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) undergoing transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) treatment. Given this premise, our research aims to assess the predictive efficacy of these models in patients with intermediate and advanced HCC receiving a combination of TACE and Apatinib. Additionally, we have conducted a meticulous comparative analysis of these four scoring systems to discern their respective predictive capacities and efficacies in combined therapy. Methods Performing a retrospective analysis on the clinical data from 200 patients with intermediate and advanced HCC, we studied those who received TACE combined with Apatinib at the First Affiliated Hospital of the University of Science and Technology of China between June 2018 and December 2022. To identify the factors affecting survival, the study performed univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses, with calculations of four different scores: HAP, Six-and-Twelve, Up to Seven, and ALBI. Lastly, Harrell’s C-index was employed to compare the prognostic abilities of these scores. Results Cox proportional hazards model results revealed that the ALBI score, presence of portal vein tumor thrombus (PVTT, )and tumor size are independent determinants of prognostic survival. The Kaplan-Meier analyses showed significant differences in survival rates among patients classified by the HAP, Six-and-Twelve, Up to Seven, and ALBI scoring methods. Of the evaluated systems, the HAP scoring demonstrated greater prognostic precision, with a Harrell’s C-index of 0.742, surpassing the alternative models (P < 0.05). In addition, an analysis of the area under the AU-ROC curve confirms the remarkable superiority of the HAP score in predicting short-term survival outcomes. Conclusion Our study confirms the predictive value of HAP, Six-and-Twelve, Up to Seven, and ALBI scores in intermediate to advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) patients receiving combined Transarterial Chemoembolization (TACE) and Apatinib therapy. Notably, the HAP model excels in predicting outcomes for this specific HCC subgroup.

Keywords

• Hepatocellular carcinoma
• Transarterial chemoembolization
• Apatinib
• Model
• Prognosis
• Overall survival