PROGNOSIS OF INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SIBERIAN FEDERAL DISTRICT AGRO-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX ECONOMY

Abstract

The paper presents a prognosis of economic development of the Siberian Federal District agro-industrial complex from the position of institutionalism. Research technique involves dividing each step of the prognosis into two parts. The first part includes the calculation of the indicators describing institutional agreements, the second includes the calculation of the indicators characterizing the institutional environment. The prognosis consists of four blocks: selection of initial data for the prognosis, calculations based on the extrapolation of the trend, projection of the most of adequate models from the level of the Siberian Federal District onto the regional level, prognosis for the planning period up to 2020 based on the received models. The results of the research allow the authors to conclude that prognosis of the indicators characterizing the institutional environment and institutional agreements in the agro-industrial complex shows negative trends that require government intervention.

Keywords

• agro-industrial complex
• agribusiness
• prognosis
• calculation
• institutional development
• institutional environment
• institutional agreements
• modeling
• trends