Future armed conflicts - A new point of view [version 2; peer review: 2 approved]

Abstract

This article focusses on future wars and the resulting consequences for the development of the armed forces. The purpose of this study is to indicate the course of future armed conflicts on the base of the forecasts presented by the largest research centres as well as to signal the need to look at them from a new point of view, disregarding the current tense situation in the world. The subjects of the research are armed conflicts, and above all, the possible ways of conducting them in the future, as well as the domains in which they will be fought. The authors assume that the causes and forms of future armed conflicts will evolve. Changes will depend on the time and place of the outbreak of conflicts, the technology used, as well as the scale of their play. It is also assumed that future armed conflicts will take place in all domains, between equal opponents or between great powers and smaller states or organizations, which are weaker to them in every respect. In the paper, the authors took an attempt to answer the following questions: How will the geopolitical and economic situation in the world change, also in the context of progressing climate change? How will armed conflicts evolve in a changing world? How will future wars play out and what capabilities should military forces have to fight them? According to the analysis, the authors claim that future armed conflicts will: take place in all domains; require a rapid situation assessment and decisions; conducted in a complex environment; include hybrid strategies; increasingly difficult to resolve; non-linear; took the form of asymmetric activities; periodically conducted without electronic devices (an opponent can disable devices or track them); implemented by modular units capable of conducting independent activities at the lowest levels; saturated with robots and drones.

Keywords

• geopolitics
• international security
• miliary security
• armed forces
• eng