Modeling the Present and Future Geographical Distribution Potential of <i>Dipteronia dyeriana</i>, a Critically Endangered Species from China

Abstract

Climate change will have various impacts on the survival and development of species, and it is important to explore whether plants can adapt to future climate conditions. Dipteronia dyeriana is an endangered species with a narrow distribution in Yunnan, characterized by a small population size. However, studies on its current distribution and the impact of climate change on its future survival and distribution are very limited. In this study, the current and future (2050 and 2090) potential habitats under the SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios were predicted using both maximum entropy (MaxEnt) and random forest (RF) models based on the current range points of D. dyeriana, soil, topographical, land cover, and climate data. The results showed that the RF model demonstrated significantly higher AUC, TSS, and Kappa scores than the MaxEnt model, suggesting high accuracy of the RF model. Isothermality (bio_3), minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio_6), and annual precipitation (bio_12) are the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of D. dyeriana. At present, the high suitability area of D. dyeriana is mainly concentrated in the eastern part of Yunnan Province and part of southern Tibet, covering an area of 3.53 × 104 km2. Under future climate change scenarios, the total area suitable for D. dyeriana is expected to increase. Although, the highly suitable area has a tendency to decrease. With regards to land use, more than 77.53% of the suitable land area (29.67 × 104 km2) could be used for D. dyeriana planting under different SSP scenarios. In 2090, the centroid shifts of the two models exhibit a consistent trend. Under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, the centroids transfer to the southeast. However, under the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, the centroids of high suitability areas migrate toward the northwest. In summary, this study enhances our understanding of the influence of climate change on the geographic range of D. dyeriana and provides essential theoretical backing for efforts in its conservation and cultivation.

Keywords

• climate change
• conservation
• isothermality
• suitable area
• MaxEnt
• random forest