Implementing Hydrological Forecasting Services Supporting Waterway Management and Transportation Logistics Relating to Hydroclimatic Impacts

Abstract

As recent years have shown, inland waterways are prone to hydroclimatic impacts. Dry spells, such as in 2003, 2015 or 2018, significantly affected freight transport as well as passenger shipping along Central Europe’s major inland waterways, such as the River Rhine. At the same time, heavy rainfall and the proceeding sea-level rise increasingly hamper the management of numerous inland waterways, such as the Kiel Canal. As prognostic information enables waterway stakeholders to take preventive measures regarding hydroclimatic impacts, the demand for extended-range hydrological forecasts tailored to the management and use of waterways is significantly increasing. Based on preliminary studies, the Federal Institute of Hydrology started developing preliminary extended-range forecast products for relevant gauges at the German waterways since 2015. Step-by-step operational services supplying these new forecast products have been set-up. For the River Rhine, a ten-day forecast has been publicly available since 2019. In 2022, a six-week forecast for Rhine and Elbe will further extend the waterway-related forecasting services in Germany. This article provides insight into the setting of these extended navigation-related forecasting services, where the communication of forecast uncertainties is still a major challenge.

Keywords

• inland waterway transport
• medium-range forecasts
• sub-seasonal forecast
• ensembles
• probabilistic forecast information
• forecasting services