The Analysis of SIIR Mathematical Model Time Delay as The Solution of Tuberculosis Transmission in South Sulawesi

Abstract

This study discusses the numerical solution of the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIIR) transmission model for Tuberculosis (TB) transmission in South Sulawesi. The data used is secondary data from the number of Tuberculosis (TB) sufferers in South Sulawesi from the South Sulawesi Provincial Health Office. The discussion begins with a study of the SIIR model, then builds a time delay SIIR model on the spread of tuberculosis. Next, simulate the delay time SIIR model to find out the number of tuberculosis cases in South Sulawesi. Determining the parameters, simulation and analysis of the results in this study obtained a graph of the movement of the SIIR model of time delay of the spread of tuberculosis with real data. After analyzing the numerical simulation, it is seen that there is a tendency for the spread of Tuberculosis (TB) in South Sulawesi. The SIIR model is a four-dimensional non-linear differential equation. The results of the modeling are simulated using MatLab software to predict the number of TB cases so that early prevention measures are the government’s attention to prevent the spread of Tuberculosis (TB) in South Sulawesi.