The Influence of Socioeconomic Factors on Human Wildfire Ignitions in the Pacific Northwest, USA

Abstract

Historical land and fire management practices coupled with climate change and modern human development pressures are contributing to larger, more frequent, and more severe wildfires across Western U.S. forests. Human ignitions are the predominant cause of wildfire throughout the United States, necessitating wildfire management strategies that consider both the causes of human ignitions and the factors that influence them. Using a dataset of over 104,000 ignitions from 1992 to 2018 for Oregon and Washington (U.S), we examine the major causes of wildfire ignitions and build regression models to evaluate the potential influence of both biophysical and socioeconomic factors on human and natural ignitions across distinct fire regimes west and east of the Cascade Range. Our results corroborate prior findings that socioeconomic factors such as income, employment, population density, and age demographics are significantly correlated with human ignitions. In the Pacific Northwest, we found that the importance of socioeconomic factors on human ignitions differs significantly between the west and east sides of the Cascade Range. We also found that most human ignitions are linked to escaped fires from recreation or debris and open burning activities, highlighting opportunities to tailor wildfire prevention efforts to better control higher risk activities and reduce accidental ignitions.

Keywords

• wildfire occurrence
• human ignitions
• pacific northwest
• social-ecological systems
• wildfire policy
• regression analysis