Impact of Climate Change and Drought Attributes in Nigeria

Abstract

Data from historical observatories and future simulations were analyzed using the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario, which covered the period from 1951 to 2100. In order to characterize the drought, three widely used drought indicators were used: the standardized precipitation index (SPI), the reconnaissance drought index (RDI), and the standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The ensemble of the seven (7) GCMs that used RCA-4 was able to capture several useful characteristics of Nigeria’s historical climatology. Future climates were forecasted to be wetter than previous periods during the study period based on the output of drought characteristics as determined by SPI. SPEI and RDI predicted drier weather, in contrast. SPEI and RDI’s predictions must have been based on the effect of rising temperatures brought on by global warming as depicted by RCP 8.5, which would then have an impact on the rate of evapotranspiration. According to drought studies using the RCP 8.5 scenario, rising temperatures will probably cause more severe/extreme droughts to occur more frequently. SPEI drought frequency changes in Nigeria often range from 0.75 (2031–2060) to 1.80 (2071–2100) month/year, whereas RDI changes typically range from 0.30 (2031–2060) to 0.60 (2071–2100) month/year. The frequency of drought incidence has recently increased and is now harder to forecast. Since the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 (SFDRR) and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) have few more years left to be completed, drastic efforts must be made to create climate-resilient systems that can tackle the effects that climate change may have on the water resources and agricultural sectors.

Keywords

• climate change
• mitigation
• drought characterization
• evapotranspiration
• Nigeria