Tropical Cyclone Forecasts in the DIMOSIC Project—Medium‐Range Forecast Models With Common Initial Conditions

Abstract

Abstract The tropical cyclone (TC) forecast skill of the eight global medium‐range forecast models which are participating in the DIfferent Models, Same Initial Conditions project is investigated in this study. Each model was used to generate 10‐day forecasts from the same initial conditions provided by the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts. There are a total of 123 initial dates spanning in one year from June 2018 to June 2019 at 3‐day intervals. The TC track and intensity forecasts are evaluated against the best track data set. TC‐related precipitation and tropical cyclogenesis forecasts are also compared to explore the differences and similarities of TC forecasts across the models. This comparison of TC forecasts allows model developers in different centers to benchmark their model against other models, with the impact of the initial condition quality removed. The verifications reveal that most models show slow‐moving and right‐of‐track biases in their TC track forecasts. Also, a common dry bias in TC‐related precipitation indicates a general deficiency in TC intensity and convection in the models which should be related to insufficient model resolution. These findings provide important references for future model developments.

Keywords

• DIMOSIC project
• tropical cyclone forecasts
• global model inter‐comparison