Construction of Risk Assessment Model for Venous Thromboembolism After Colorectal Cancer Surgery: A Chinese Single-Center Study

Abstract

Objective A retrospective study was carried out to construct a postoperative venous thromboembolism (VTE) risk assessment model (RAM) applicable for Chinese colorectal cancer patients. Methods 541 Patients who underwent colorectal cancer surgery from June 2019 to May 2020 at Sir-Run-Run-Shaw Hospital affiliated to Zhejiang University School of Medicine were enrolled in this study. Multi-factor analysis was used to determine the independent risk factors of VTE. A novel RAM of VTE which we called Sir-Run-Run-Shaw VTE RAM were constructed basing on the independent risk factors. Another study cohort consisted of 287 colorectal cancer patients underwent surgery from January 2021 to June 2021was used for model evaluation. Results The incidence of VTE after colorectal cancer surgery was 12.0%(65/541). Among the 65 VTE Patients, DVT accounted for 92.3% (60/65) and DVT + PE accounted for 7.7% (5/65). Multi-factor analysis showed that age ≥ 69 years ( P < 0.01), preoperative plasma D-dimer ≥ 0.49 mg/L ( P = .004), stage IV of cancer ( P = .018) and transfusion ( P = .004) are independent risk factors of VTE after surgery. Sir-Run-Run-Shaw VTE RAM includes the above 4 factors, and the total score is 4 points. The score of the low, medium and high risk groups are 0, 1 and ≥2 points. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) of Sir-Run-Run-Shaw VTE RAM is 0.769, while Caprini RAM is 0.656. There is statistical difference between the two risk score tables ( Z = 2.337, P = .0195). Conclusion A VTE RAM is constructed basing on a single center retrospective study. This score table may be applicable for Chinese patients with colorectal cancer surgery.