Complejidad, incertidumbre y vulnerabilidad: el riesgo asociado al volcán Cotopaxi en el Valle de los Chillos (Quito-Ecuador)

Abstract

The article proposes an analysis of the risk associated with the Cotopaxi volcano in Los Chillos valley (Valle de Los Chillos), on the south east side of metropolitan Quito. At first examination it presents a priori a quantifiable risk. However the recognition of uncertainties, which reveal risk complexity, challenged this approach. Complexity is linked not only to the difficulties of hazard evaluation, but also to urban evolution, political management of territories or exposed population variability. The exploration of various risk complexity factors and associated uncertainties improves the understanding of vulnerability. This approach also opens perspectives and the reduction of uncertainties appears as a way to reduce risk and improve crisis management tools.

Keywords

• uncertainty
• vulnerability
• crisis management
• risk
• complexity
• Valle de Los Chillos