Temporal trends and projections of gynecological cancers in China, 2007–2030

Abstract

Abstract Background Gynecological cancer will become a more important public health problem in future years but limited evidence on gynecological cancer burden in China. Methods We extracted age-specific rate of cancer cases and deaths during 2007–2016 from the Chinese Cancer Registry Annual Report, and estimated age-specific population size using the data released by National Bureau of Statistics of China. Cancer burden were calculated by multiplying the rates with the population size. Temporal trends of the cancer cases, incidence, deaths, and mortality during 2007–2016 were calculated by JoinPoint Regression Program, and from 2017 to 2030 were projected by grey prediction model GM (1,1). Results In China, total gynecological cancer cases increased from 177,839 to 241,800, with the average annual percentage change of 3.5% (95% CI: 2.7–4.3%) during 2007–2016. Cervical, uterine, ovarian, vulva, and other gynecological cancer cases increased by 4.1% (95% CI: 3.3–4.9%), 3.3% (95% CI: 2.6–4.1%), 2.4% (95% CI: 1.4–3.5%), 4.4% (95% CI: 2.5–6.4%), and 3.6% (95% CI: 1.4–5.9%) respectively. From 2017 to 2030, projected gynecological cancer cases are changing from 246,581 to 408,314. Cervical, vulva and vaginal cancers showed evident upward trend, while uterine and ovarian cancer cases are slightly increasing. The increases for age-standardized incidence rates were similar with that of cancer cases. Temporal trends of cancer deaths and mortality were similar with that of cancer cases and incidence during 2007–2030, except that uterine cancer deaths and mortality were declined. Conclusions With the aging of population and other increased risk factors, the burden of gynecological cancers in China is likely to be grew rapidly in the future, comprehensive gynecological cancer control should be concerned.

Keywords

• Gynecological cancer
• Temporal trend
• AAPC
• Projection
• China