Estimating the Best Time to View Cherry Blossoms Using Time-Series Forecasting Method

Abstract

In recent years, tourist information collection using the internet has become common. Tourists are increasingly using internet resources to obtain tourist information. Social network service (SNS) users share tourist information of various kinds. Twitter, one SNS, has been used for many studies. We are pursuing research supporting a method using Twitter to help tourists obtain information: estimates of the best time to view cherry blossoms. Earlier studies have proposed a low-cost moving average method using geotagged tweets related to location information. Geotagged tweets are helpful as social sensors for real-time estimation and for the acquisition of local tourist information because the information can reflect real-world situations. Earlier studies have used weighted moving averages, indicating that a person can estimate the best time to view cherry blossoms in each prefecture. This study proposes a time-series prediction method using SNS data and machine learning as a new method for estimating the best times for viewing for a certain period. Combining the time-series forecasting method and the low-cost moving average method yields an estimate of the best time to view cherry blossoms. This report describes results confirming the usefulness of the proposed method by experimentation with estimation of the best time to view beautiful cherry blossoms in each prefecture and municipality.

Keywords

• cherry blossom
• machine learning
• mining
• sightseeing
• SNS