Deindustrialisation and Voting Behaviour: A Regional Analysis of the German Federal Election of 2017

Abstract

Abstract In this contribution, the political success of the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) in the German federal election of 2017 is explained by the adverse effect of shrinking manufacturing employment. The employment effect is particularly strong in regions with vital industrial traditions. The performed regression confirms that regions that were characterised by a high share of manufacturing workers in the 1930s and that experience a sharp decline in industrial employment today show significantly better election results for the AfD.