Co-seismic landslide susceptibility mapping for the Luding earthquake area based on heterogeneous ensemble machine learning models

Abstract

Considering the complexity of landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM) at the municipal-scale, it is difficult for the assumption space of a single machine learning (ML) algorithm to fully and accurately reflect the intrinsic correlation between the landslide influencing factors and the actual catastrophic events under all scenarios. This study addresses this by integrating three heterogeneous ensemble learning (HEL) algorithms(Bagging, Blending, and Stacking) with four ML models (Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), and Backpropagation-Neural Network (BPNN)), to construct 27 HEL LSM models, and to realize optimization and selection of the models and algorithms through the comparative analysis of the results of the LSM and the accuracy of the prediction of the individual models. The final results indicate that the Bagging and Blending HEL algorithms fail to enhance model prediction accuracy effectively. In contrast, the Stacking HEL algorithm significantly improves model prediction accuracy (with an accuracy increase of over 1.4% and AUC values above 0.95). The Stacking (GBDT-XGBoost) model had the highest prediction accuracy (AUC = 0.964) and thus was selected as the optimal LSM model. This study's modeling and mapping results are intended to serve as a reference for geohazard prevention and sustainability studies in related cities.

Keywords

• Co-seismic landslide
• Ensemble learning
• Landslide susceptibility mapping
• Luding earthquake
• Machine learning