Age Estimation of Transmission Line Using Statistical Health Index and Failure Probability Curve-Fitting Method

Abstract

The aging process of transmission lines has a direct impact on the reliability and safety of the power grid. Therefore, an accurate age estimation method is imperative for effective maintenance planning and infrastructure investment. This paper introduces a systematic methodology for estimating the age of overhead transmission lines, utilizing the percentage statistical health index (%SHI) and the failure probability curve-fitting (FPCF) method. The %SHI, employing a scoring and weighting approach derived from test results and inspections, is used to assess the actual condition of transmission line equipment. Additionally, the FPCF approach is applied to illustrate the connection between the SHI and the likelihood of failure, facilitating the assessment of transmission line age by fitting failure probability curves to the SHI data. This age is directly associated with the probability of experiencing a failure. The evaluation was conducted on 924 towers situated along four transmission lines connecting the 115 kV substations S1–S2, S3–S4, S5–S6, and S7–S8. These transmission lines are in four regions with diverse terrain and environments such as mountains, rice fields, and more. In the SHI calculation, practical testing results and historical failure data were applied. The results clearly indicate that there were notable disparities in the age estimations for transmission lines in diverse geographical regions of Thailand when compared to their actual ages. These discrepancies can be attributed to various factors, including the local environment, such as rainfall, flooding, and salt-laden air as well as specific geographical features like mountainous and coastal terrain. To mitigate the deterioration of transmission lines in all regions, it is essential to implement a proactive maintenance strategy. This strategy should involve more frequent inspections, the use of advanced monitoring technologies, and the establishment of robust maintenance procedures, with which it would become possible to enhance the accuracy of equipment condition assessments, ultimately resulting in an overall improvement in the reliability of transmission lines.

Keywords

• age estimation
• health index
• normal distribution
• mortality model
• failure probability curve fitting
• overhead transmission line